As the country gears up for the midterm elections, regular polls are becoming commonplace and they don’t paint a pretty picture for Democrat activists who are hoping that a “Blue Wave” will give them control of one or both houses of Congress.
While a number of pollsters indicate that Democrats are likely to win back the House of Representatives, this outcome is not a given. What is more, Democrats face long odds in their efforts to take control of the Senate.
At present, FiveThirtyEight is showing that Republicans have a 5 in 7 chance of retaining control over the Senate, and other polls are backing this information up. Republicans have a lead in three out of five key Senate races. In the two Senate races where Democrats have a small lead, the lead is narrow and the large number of undecided voters in each race could tip it either way. What is more, both states in question were won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, and a large number of voters in these states still have a favorable view of the President.
Even so, it isn’t just a few Senate races that Democrats need to worry about. A recent Gallup poll showed that an impressive 45% of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party. This is an impressive 9% increase from last year, when only 36% of Americans viewed Republicans in a favorable light. The poll also shows that 85% of registered Republicans view their own party in a positive light, while only 80% of Democrats could say the same of their own party. While it is not surprising that most of the members of a particular party would have a good opinion of the party in question, these numbers could be important indicators of election turnout, especially in areas with tight races.
The Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot still shows that Democrats have a lead over Republicans; however, the poll notes that this lead has narrowed. Democrats now only hold a 3% advantage over Republicans. Even more importantly, the poll shows that 8% of potential voters are undecided. This all-important figure will naturally have a huge bearing on who wins control of Congress, and candidates may have to adapt their stances on different issues in order to win at least some of these voters over to their side.
At the same time, it is also worth noting that, as Rasmussen accurately points out, both parties were dead even at 40% in the 2014 mid-term elections — when the Republicans not only gained control over the Senate, but also expanded their majority in the House. While it is typically harder for a party that has control of the White House to retain control over both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections, the data shows that such a feat may not be entirely impossible.
Both mainstream and alternative news outlets are painting this midterm election season as a tipping point for the nation and it is not hard to see why. Politics have never been as polarized as they are right now, as Democrats refuse to accept the fact that their chosen candidate lost in 2016 ,and Republican voters are pushing their party to enact the promises that Donald Trump has been making over the last couple of years.
If Democrats regain control over the House, it is unlikely that any meaningful legislation will get passed in the next couple of years. What is more likely is that Democrats will spend more time stalling the Trump administration with endless investigations. Legislative productivity will essentially be brought to a halt. If you think the Democrats are obstructionist now — to the point that they are willing to outright slander men like Brett Kavanaugh to get their way — imagine what it will be like when they are actually in charge.
Conservatives must make it to the polls in November. We have proven the polls wrong before, and we can do it again.
~ Liberty Planet
