As America speeds toward the general election on November 5, there is still a lot of time for some political “surprises.” October isn’t over yet.
And this particular surprise is sure to make former President Trump, the Republican candidate for president, smile ear to ear.
Several well-known election polls turned out to be more favorable for Trump over the weekend, which was good news for the GOP candidate.
This news comes at a time when Trump’s main political rival, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president, has finally seen her carefully engineered momentum stop.
Remember that Democrats had a lot of momentum and good poll numbers when Harris (by hook or crook) officially replaced President Biden on the Democratic presidential ticket. This was mostly because they kept her in Tupperware for as long as possible.
However, things started to go wrong as soon as voters learned more about Harris, as these studies show.
Polls from The Economist show that Trump has taken the lead “as the polls swing away” from Harris.
The Economist said, “For the first time within two months, Trump now has the lead in our model. He now has a 54 in 100 chance of beating Harris. In August, national polls showed that a lot of undecided and third-party voters chose Kamala Harris. Recently, some of those voters—who may have leaning Republican all along—have joined Mr. Trump’s team.”
According to its own polls, The Hill, which leans toward Dems, found the same thing.
Trump is now “a slight favorite” to win the presidential race, according to the news source. He “has gained a lead in polling in Michigan and Wisconsin, adding to his existing advantages in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.”
More than that, Nate Silver, who helped make 538 but has since gone his own way, found similar things in his data models:
Silver said that this was the first tip Trump had in his modeling work since September. He also said that this race is still very close, like a very close sports game.
Any small lead is better than a small lead just weeks before the election on November 5, so this is all good news for Trump. However, he and his followers should not take this late lead for granted.
From all of these polls, it’s clear that Trump’s lead is not unbeatable. Even though it’s annoying, Harris’ Tupperware trick has worked on a lot of American voters. In this political environment, a thin lead might as well be called a thin trail.
Author: Blake Ambrose
