A poll shows that former President Trump, a Republican, has pulled ahead of current President Joe Biden, a Democrat, on the eve of the latter’s anticipated State of the Union speech this week in Congress.
Trump has a 3% edge over Biden, who has 47%. 1% said they would vote for a different candidate, 3% said they wouldn’t vote for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden, 2% said they wouldn’t vote at all, and 1% said they had no opinion.
The poll, conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News, indicates a five-point swing in Trump’s favor over the pollster’s previous national survey, conducted in September, which showed Biden leading Donald Trump 48 percent to 46 percent.
The study, which was conducted from January 27 to February 1, surveyed 1,003 American adults and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
This indicates that the survey was finished before the public learned about a Chinese Communist Party suspected surveillance balloon flying over the continental United States—the story emerged last Thursday evening, and the poll was completed on Wednesday. The balloon story caught the nation’s attention, and Republicans have slammed Biden. Trump has stated that he would have shot down the balloon much sooner than Biden did. The current president permitted the balloon to go over the whole country before shooting it down over the Atlantic Ocean.
The survey that puts Trump ahead of Biden in 2024 was released only a few days before Biden was scheduled to deliver the State of the Union speech to Congress on Tuesday night. Republicans have already been criticizing Biden in the run-up to the speech, with some, like Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL), threatening to boycott the president’s address.
The survey was released shortly after it was reported that Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who subsequently served as Trump’s ambassador to the UN, will be launching her own Republican presidential campaign in Charleston, South Carolina, in the middle of February.
Haley’s statement is the first of many prominent Republicans who are likely to challenge Trump. Just last weekend, New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu said that he, too, is considering a candidacy. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, among others, are allegedly contemplating running, as is Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Other Republicans running against or thinking about running against Trump think that Trump would be weaker than a different candidate versus Biden in 2024, and that Trump might blow it for the GOP. Sununu made just that point during an interview on ABC News’ This Week on Sunday.
However, now that polls show Trump surpassing Biden — even polls from establishment media sites like ABC News and the Washington Post – it is much more difficult for other Republicans to ignore Trump’s very significant ongoing national popularity. A number of recent polls have shown Trump performing better than DeSantis versus Biden, including a recent Harvard-Harris survey that showed Trump beating Biden by 5 points, while DeSantis only led by 3. Trump also outpaced DeSantis when it came to Vice President Kamala Harris, leading her by 8 points to DeSantis’s 3 points.